Thousand Palms, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS66 KSGX 170142
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
542 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, wind, and mountain snow are expected through
the week. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening
through early Tuesday morning. Areas of light showers will
continue into Tuesday with strengthening west winds along the
mountain crests and desert slopes, which peak Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. A second round of rain and lower elevation
mountain snow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool with
decreasing chances for showers for Thursday and Friday. Chances of
precipitation increase again into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Key Points:
*A winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow to the mountains
 above 5500 ft creating hazardous travel conditions through
 Thursday. Snow levels as low as 3500 to 4000 ft Wednesday into
 Thursday may result in light accumulations through the Cajon
 Pass and along I-8.

*Gusty south to west winds will continue this afternoon from the
coast to the deserts. Stronger and potentially damaging west winds
along the mountain crests and adjacent desert slopes Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday.

*Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected below the snow level
through this evening. Ponding of water on roads and minor street
flooding in urban areas possible. Increased flows on rivers,
especially the San Diego, Santa Margarita, and Whitewater Rivers.

The first round of rain, wind, and mountain snow is currently moving
across Southern California. Peak wind gust and rainfall summaries
are headlined on our weather.gov/sandiego homepage. Moderate to
locally heavy rain is expected to continue through early this
evening. Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday morning, with
light to moderate rain expected. Snow levels at 1 PM were 6000-6500
ft. Snow levels are expected to drop through tonight falling to
as low as 4500-5000 ft by Tuesday morning. More details on
expected rain and snow can be found in the Hydrology section
below.

The next shortwave is still on track to bring additional rounds of
widespread rain, winds, and continued mountain snow Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to be
stronger with this round shortwave for the mountain ridges and
desert mountains slopes with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, potentially
higher in wind prone locations. For the coast and valleys, peak
gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected and in the deserts gusts of 50
to 60 mph.

There will be lower chances for mostly lighter showers for
Thursday into Friday. Chances for precipitation for next weekend
are 10 to 15 percent, increasing to 20 percent for Sunday. High
temperatures will warm slightly for Thursday and Friday, then
gradually warm for Saturday through Monday with Monday high
temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. High
temperatures for next Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s
near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the valleys with the
lower deserts around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
161830Z...Coast and Valleys...The main front has pushed through the
coasts and valleys, becoming more diffuse into the mountains. The
strong southerly winds observed earlier today have largely died down
behind the front. Heavier precipitation accompanying the front has
pushed out as well, though on and off post frontal showers remain
possible through late Tuesday morning. Outside any precipitation,
VFR conditions will generally prevail, with multiple clouds decks: a
FEW-SCT deck around 1000-2000ft MSL and a more defined BKN deck
around 3500-5000ft MSL. With any showers that pass through, VIS may
briefly fall to 1-5 SM, with CIGs anywhere from 1500-2500ft MSL.
Shower activity becomes much more spotty by 15-18z Tuesday.

Mountains/Deserts...Cloud obscurations in the mountains and VIS
reduced to 0-2SM as the band of RA/SN continues to move through,
lessening after 03z Tuesday. Precipitation becomes more showery and
off and on after 03z, continuing into late Tuesday morning. South
winds 30-45 kts with local gusts 60 kts, strongest through 03z.
After a relative lull overnight, winds gust pick back up again on
Tuesday in the mountains and desert slopes after 16z. &&

.MARINE...
A storm system is generating strong winds with high and choppy
seas, but will weaken a bit on Tuesday before increasing again on
Wednesday. Seas expected to be around 8-12 feet with wind gusts
25-35 knots, with briefly higher to 40 knots. A Gale Warning is in
effect through tonight with another Gale Warning in effect for
Wednesday. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
waters today/tonight.

&&

.BEACHES...
Strong westerly swell (9-11 feet with an average period of about 10-
12 seconds) will produce large breaking waves up to 8-12 feet on
most beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties today through
Friday night. Widespread, strong rip currents are also likely with
these waves and dangerous swimming conditions expected. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect and contains more information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain and snow is expected to continue through this
evening. Peak rainfall rates of 0.30-0.60" per hour are expected
through the afternoon, with rates up to 0.30" per hour expected in
showers overnight and into Tuesday morning. Snow levels are expected
to drop to 4500-5000 ft by Tuesday morning and high resolution
models are showing persistent showers in the mountains into Tuesday
morning. Isolated showers will continue into Tuesday afternoon,
with the highest chances of precipitation in the mountains.

Another round of rain and mountain snow is expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Hourly rainfall rates are expected to be 0.20-0.30"
per hour. Forecast rainfall totals for Tuesday into Wednesday are
0.25-0.60" for the coast and valleys, 0.20-0.30" for the High
Desert, and 0.10-0.25" for the low deserts. 1-2" of rain are
expected below the snow level Tuesday night into Wednesday. For
Tuesday into Wednesday snow forecast has an additional 4-10" 5000-
6000 ft, 10-20" 6000-7000 ft, and up to 2 ft above 7000 ft. The San
Diego County mountains may see some accumulating snow, with totals
of 1-3", locally higher at the highest peaks.

The San Diego River at Fashion Valley and the Santa Margarita river
are expected to reach monitor stage. The San Diego River is expected
to reach monitor stage by 11 PM. The Santa Margarita River is
expected to start responding tonight/early Tuesday morning, but is
not expected to reach monitor stage until Wednesday. Interested
parties should continue to closely monitor the river forecast and
observed river levels this week. Current forecast indicates minor
flood impacts to Avenida del Rio may occur. Please see the latest
River Statement or CNRFC website for more information. There may be
impacts to Whitewater River although with significant snow forecast
to impact the higher elevations of the mountains, flood impacts may
be limited.

Scattered light rain and snow showers are possible through Wednesday
into Thursday as a third shortwave moves north of the area. Snow
levels for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be 3500-4000 ft so
if any snow showers develop accumulating snow could impact the Cajon
Pass and along higher portions of I-8.

There remains slight chances of precipitation Friday through the
weekend ahead of the next trough set developing over the Gulf of
Alaska. There remains considerable uncertainty in the details of the
forecast but periods of unsettled weather looks possible next
week.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains
     and Foothills.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Wednesday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Wednesday for Riverside
     County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for San Diego County
     Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego
     County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys.

PZ...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan